Cancer incidence in Wales is showing signs of recovery to pre-pandemic levels of detection, with notable improvements in the detection rates for bowel and female breast cancers between 2020 and 2021. 

In 2021, the number of new cancer cases increased by 10.2 percent compared to 2020, with a total of 19,625 cases diagnosed. However, this figure remains 3.9 percent lower than the pre-pandemic average observed during 2018-2019. The data reflects a mixed picture across different cancer types, with some recovering more robustly than others. 

The recovery has been particularly strong for bowel and female breast cancers, where the number of detected cases in 2021 exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Bowel cancer diagnoses saw a 9.4 percent increase, while female breast cancer cases rose by 5.5 percent compared to the 2018-2019 average. 

This recovery can be attributed, in-part, to the successful and prompt, reinstatement of national screening programmes for these cancers, which had been temporarily paused during the first lockdown in March 2020. The screening programmes for bowel and female breast cancer were reinstated in August 2020, leading to the return of expected screen detected  cancer diagnoses. From October 2021 the Bowel Screening Programme lowered the age range and started to invite people aged 58 to 60. . 

While the rebound in bowel and female breast cancer diagnoses is encouraging, other cancers have not experienced the same level of recovery. Lung cancer diagnoses in 2021 were still 3.9 percent below pre-pandemic levels, and prostate cancer continues to lag significantly, with a 20.4 percent decrease in detected cases compared to 2018-2019. 

The variations in recovery rates across different cancer types are likely influenced by differences in healthcare pathways. For instance, lung cancers, which are more often diagnosed following symptomatic presentation, have seen slower recoveries.  

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