New modelling from Public Health Wales projects that there will be around 24,000 new cancer cases in Wales identified in 2035, a projected increase of 11 per cent from 2025.

The increase, which is described in a new report “Cancer in Wales – trends and projections”, is largely down to the ageing population in Wales, as cancer is more common in older people. In the twenty years between 2005 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 and over in Wales is estimated to have increased by 186,000 and is projected to grow by another 135,000 in the next decade.

Cancer accounts for around one in four deaths of people in Wales, with 9,123 deaths in Wales recorded as being caused by cancer in 2024. Although the likelihood of surviving for more than five years after a cancer diagnosis has been increasing, the total number of new cases has gone up – meaning that there are now ten per cent more deaths from cancer in Wales than in 2002.

Just over half the number of cases of cancer are made of the four most common types – prostate, breast, lung and colorectal (bowel) cancers. Lung cancer is responsible for the highest number of deaths from cancer, partly because it is often diagnosed at a late stage.

Public Health Wales has projected in the report that by 2035 there will be more cases of prostate cancer, breast cancer and bowel cancer each year. Because of challenges capturing the impact of changing patterns of smoking and the potential impact of the targeted national screening programme – to be introduced in 2027 – it was not possible to project the numbers of lung cancer cases.

In addition, well-established evidence has demonstrated that around four in ten new cancers can be prevented, by reducing risk factors such as smoking, living with overweight or obesity, drinking alcohol, HPV infection or getting too much UV exposure.

The report also says that the deprivation gaps in cancer diagnosis and survival show no signs of closing. After adjusting for different age distributions, the incidence of cancer is a fifth higher in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived. This gap has remained at the same level for nearly twenty years.